Analysis Of The Impact Of Unemployment On A Country’s Financial Security

Аннотация

The purpose of this paper is to identify and quantitatively assess how labour-market parameters affect the financial security of Uzbekistan. Using annual data for 2000–2025, a linear regression model was estimated and its specification was validated through standard residual-diagnostic tests. The findings show that a one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate lowers GDP by an average of USD 6.8 billion, while a one-percentagepoint rise in employment boosts output by USD 3.7 billion. An R² of 0.74 and statistically significant F-statistics confirm the high explanatory power of the labour indicators. The presence of heteroscedasticity and structural breaks signals the need to move toward non-linear and hybrid modelling approaches. Based on the results, a set of practical measures is proposed: implementation of “live” macro stress tests using fintech data; adjustment of the fiscal rule to provide counter-cyclical support for employment; and expansion of early-warning indicators for the banking sector. The study demonstrates that integrating labour-market data into macrofinancial monitoring enables the early identification and mitigation of systemic risks, thereby enhancing the overall resilience of the economy